Iraq

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Analysis

Sales vs. Receipts: Understanding Why Iraq's Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Finance Report Oil Revenue Differently

Mahmood Baban

Various reasons have been cited to explain why Iraq’s oil and finance ministries publish different reports on the country’s oil revenues, including oil sale terms, the timing of revenue transfers, the authority of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York over Iraq’s oil revenues, and the inspection, auditing, and review mechanisms governing those revenues. While all of these factors play a role, the primary reason lies in the difference in accounting methods.

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Analysis

Will Iraq's falling oil revenues threaten public sector salaries in 2026?

Mahmood Baban

Iraq's oil production capacity has fallen to below 2003 levels in recent days and its exports via the Strait of Hormuz has completely stalled despite ongoing negotiation with the Iranian side to allow Baghdad to export its oil. Prior to February 28, when the US and Israel launched a massive air campaign against Tehran, Iraq had exported 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from its southern fields though the Strait of Hormuz at around $65-72 dollars per barrel and around 50,000 bpd from the Kurdistan Region.

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Analysis

Can Iraq produce 4.5 million barrels of oil per day?

Mahmood Baban

Before the war, Iraq's goal was to reach a production of 6 million barrels of oil per day. Now that figure is becoming a dream, growing more distant day by day from the pre-war level of 4.5 million barrels per day - because Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups are targeting oil and gas fields in Iraq as a result of the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran, and foreign oil companies are withdrawing from Iraq one after another.