Contrastingly, public sentiment toward the current cabinet reveals 48.8% dissatisfaction and 50.6% satisfaction. The highest dissatisfaction rates emerged in Sulaymaniyah province 82.9%, Halabja 80.6%, Raperin 72.3%, and Garmian 65.6%. In contrast, 50.6% voiced satisfaction, with 24.9% being highly satisfied and 25.7% somewhat satisfied. Notably, the administration of Soran displayed the highest satisfaction levels at 65.4%, followed by Duhok 41.7% and Erbil 37.1%.
The survey outcomes reveal a notable trend, the initial victors in the forthcoming election appear to be those who abstain from participating, the ambiguous “undecided voters,” and those who cast empty votes. This intricate distribution encompasses 39.7% of citizens opting to abstain, 29.2% willing to participate but withholding their votes, and an additional 3.7% intending to cast empty votes. The cumulative number of these constituents is estimated at 2,167,252, dimming the prospects of unforeseen outcomes in the impending elections.
Based on the survey findings, among those who haven’t previously participated in elections, men exhibited a higher registration rate compared to women. Focusing on various age groups, young individuals aged 18-24 stood out with the most substantial enrollment rate at 52.6%. At the provincial level, Soran secured the highest registration percentage at 72.4%, followed by Zakho at 68.7%, Erbil at 58.3%, and Duhok at 52.4%. Conversely, Sulaymaniyah, Garmian, Raperin, and Halabja recorded the lowest proportions of individuals expressing a reluctance to participate, with only 20% of respondents indicating their registration for the upcoming elections.
The upcoming elections hold the potential for unexpected results, as revealed by the poll, primarily due to several factors related to voter demographics and changing population figures in the Kurdistan Region. In the 2018 Kurdistan Parliamentary elections, the voter count stood at 3,085,461. Since then, the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has projected the number of voters to be 3,227,551 for 2021, and currently, it stands at 3,641,000 voters. Certainly, in anticipation of the upcoming parliamentary elections, set to take place on February 25, 2024, as per the most recent directive issued by President Nechirvan Barzani, the projected number of voters is expected to rise.
There is a divided opinion among young people regarding the future political landscape in the Kurdistan Region. Approximately 36.8% anticipate deterioration, while 46.9% believe that things will improve, and the remaining respondents expect the situation to remain unchanged. Sulaymaniyah, Halabja, Garmian, and Raperin have the highest percentages of individuals who expect the situation to worsen, with 67.3% in Raperin and 66.7% in Garmian. In contrast, 70.7% in Soran and 50.9% in Zakho foresee progress.
Youth participation in civil society activities (NGO) and political parties has seen an increase in the Kurdistan Region, following a trend observed in Europe. According to the survey, 86.9% of young people have not previously engaged in civil society or political party activities. This percentage rises to 91% among the 15-24 age group, indicating a substantial gap between young individuals and political parties/civil society organizations. However, when asked about their active involvement in such activities within the past 12 months, 55.5% of young people reported participating in political organizations or party-related events. In the Garmian Independent Administration, 100% of youth were engaged in political parties, while in the Raperin Independent Administration, the highest percentage of young people participated in civil society groups (100%). Notably, the level of non-participation in the past, particularly in the independent administrations of Sulaymaniyah, Halabja, Raperin, and Garmian, exceeded 90%, but this has changed in the last 12 months.
According to the Survey findings, 43.9% of young people in the Kurdistan Region are employed, 26.6% are students, and 15.7% are housewives. The unemployment rate among young individuals is 13.6%, while it is 0.2% among the disabled and ill. There is a significant gender gap in employment, with 61.5% of males and only 16.1% of females working. The unemployment rate among females is 13.5%. Soran has the highest rate of employed youth (51.7%), followed by Zakho (50%) and Raperin (47%). Erbil has a high percentage of employed youth (46.8%), followed by Sulaymaniyah (42.2%) and Duhok (41%). Halabja has the lowest employment rate, followed by Garmian. Garmian has the highest rate of youth unemployment at 29.6%, followed by Duhok at 21.8%, Raparin, and Zakho at 16.7%.
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