Voters’ Preferences and Choices
The survey outcomes reveal a notable trend, the initial victors in the forthcoming election appear to be those who abstain from participating, the ambiguous “undecided voters,” and those who cast empty votes. This intricate distribution encompasses 39.7% of citizens opting to abstain, 29.2% willing to participate but withholding their votes, and an additional 3.7% intending to cast empty votes. The cumulative number of these constituents is estimated at 2,167,252, dimming the prospects of unforeseen outcomes in the impending elections.
As per the poll results, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) is poised to garner 46.1% of the intended 60.3% voters participating in the elections. This translates to a perceptible surge in the KDP’s vote share in comparison to the 2021 elections. This surge could partly be attributed to an upsurge in young voters, primarily concentrated in Erbilv and Duhok provinces. Gender-wise, KDP’s voter proportions are relatively balanced, yet intriguingly, the party tends to attract a higher percentage of younger voters. Notably, the percentage of KDP voters tends to dwindle with age, with 51% of first-time voters expressing allegiance to the KDP. This might be due to the KDP’s pronounced influence in regions with a significant youth demographic.
Geographically, the KDP garners its highest support from rural areas at 59.2%, witnessing a gradual decrease in urban centers. The KDP’s strongholds include Zakho, Soran, Duhok, and Erbil, while its presence is less pronounced in Sulaymaniyah, Garmian,
Raperin, and Halabja.
The KDP’s support is notably higher in areas marked by robust voter turnout and the areas with lower percentage of “undecided votes.” Within these parameters, 29.2% of respondents preferred to withhold their vote. Assuming a total voter count of 3,641,000 in 2024, comprising 641,092 undecided votes and 3.7% empty votes (equivalent to over 80,000 votes), their collective influence becomes significant. The outcome of these indistinct votes could potentially sway toward other parties or pave the way for a new political entity. Regions such as Sulaymaniyah 55.1%, Halabja 53.1%, Raperin 49.1%, and Erbil 26.4% demonstrate the highest concentrations of these uncertain voters. Consequently, these undecided voters could play a pivotal role, particularly in areas like Sulaymaniyah, Garmian, Raperin, and Halabja, where their votes might determine the ultimate victor. These voters could also create obstacles for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in Erbil if it fails to convince at least some of them.
The poll results also indicate that the PUK is anticipated to secure 11.3% of the vote share. Notably, the PUK garners more support from female voters than their male counterparts. The party also boasts a higher proportion of older voters compared to the younger demographic, with the highest representation among those aged over 60. Intriguingly, 9.3% of first-time voters are inclined towards the PUK. Occupation-wise, the PUK’s support is notably stronger among the economically inactive, with 13.6% of their voters falling in this category. Geographical distinctions appear less impactful on the PUK’s support, as urban and rural areas show similar proportional representations. Noteworthy areas for PUK support include Raperin, Garmian, Sulaymaniyah, and Halabja, regions characterized by lower turnout and a substantial undecided vote presence.
A third contender, the New Generation Party, emerges with a 5.5% share of the vote. Intriguingly, little variance is observed across gender, age, and occupation in the party’s voter base. It gains 9.5% of first-time voters, as per the poll. Notably, the New Generation Party previously secured the highest votes in certain regions like Halabja during a Rudaw Youth Research Center poll, yet its performance in the general elections landed it in third or second place.
Undecided voters, constituting 29.2% of those who actively participate, hold a pivotal role in the upcoming elections, particularly when combined with the percentage of blank voters. This intricate combination holds the potential to propel the emergence of a new political party, or in the absence of unforeseen outcomes, lead to the reallocation of votes to parties beyond the PUK and KDP. Among the undecided voters, a notable portion aligns with the Gorran Movement, New Generation Party, Kurdistan Islamic Union, and Kurdistan Justice Group. However, these parties have witnessed a decline in support due to the relatively low prevalence of undecided votes among new voters.
We have envisioned multiple scenarios depicting the potential redistribution of their votes, diverse scenarios outlining the redistribution of “undecided votes” have been outlined in the accompanying graph.
