The quota seat issue has never been a primary concern in the parties' internal disputes as it is today. The international community and internal negotiations have consistently failed to find a solution
Undoubtedly, The ongoing discussions among the political parties in the Kurdistan Region in the context of the efforts towards reconciliation, particularly concerning the Kurdistan parliamentary elections, is a multifaceted matter.
The upcoming elections hold the potential for unexpected results, as revealed by the poll, primarily due to several factors related to voter demographics and changing population figures in the Kurdistan Region. In the 2018 Kurdistan Parliamentary elections, the voter count stood at 3,085,461. Since then, the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has projected the number of voters to be 3,227,551 for 2021, and currently, it stands at 3,641,000 voters. Certainly, in anticipation of the upcoming parliamentary elections, set to take place on February 25, 2024, as per the most recent directive issued by President Nechirvan Barzani, the projected number of voters is expected to rise.
Based on the survey findings, among those who haven’t previously participated in elections, men exhibited a higher registration rate compared to women. Focusing on various age groups, young individuals aged 18-24 stood out with the most substantial enrollment rate at 52.6%. At the provincial level, Soran secured the highest registration percentage at 72.4%, followed by Zakho at 68.7%, Erbil at 58.3%, and Duhok at 52.4%. Conversely, Sulaymaniyah, Garmian, Raperin, and Halabja recorded the lowest proportions of individuals expressing a reluctance to participate, with only 20% of respondents indicating their registration for the upcoming elections.
The survey outcomes reveal a notable trend, the initial victors in the forthcoming election appear to be those who abstain from participating, the ambiguous “undecided voters,” and those who cast empty votes. This intricate distribution encompasses 39.7% of citizens opting to abstain, 29.2% willing to participate but withholding their votes, and an additional 3.7% intending to cast empty votes. The cumulative number of these constituents is estimated at 2,167,252, dimming the prospects of unforeseen outcomes in the impending elections.
Contrastingly, public sentiment toward the current cabinet reveals 48.8% dissatisfaction and 50.6% satisfaction. The highest dissatisfaction rates emerged in Sulaymaniyah province 82.9%, Halabja 80.6%, Raperin 72.3%, and Garmian 65.6%. In contrast, 50.6% voiced satisfaction, with 24.9% being highly satisfied and 25.7% somewhat satisfied. Notably, the administration of Soran displayed the highest satisfaction levels at 65.4%, followed by Duhok 41.7% and Erbil 37.1%.
Roughly 60.3% of the surveyed population expressed their intention to participate in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, displaying similarity in turnout rates when compared to previous elections. This inclination towards participation seems to arise from a combination of new voters entering the scene and a strong aspiration among young individuals to engage in the electoral process. Moreover, the prevalent political climate and heightened polarization could also be significant factors impacting individuals’ decisions to take part in the elections. The survey indicates that three distinct groups — non-participants, undecided voters, and those opting for blank ballots — are poised to play substantial roles in the upcoming elections. Particularly noteworthy is the 39.7% of voters who intend to refrain from voting, along with 29.2% who responded positively but withheld their voting choice and 3.7%, indicated a plan to cast blank ballots. This cumulative figure amounts to 2,167,252 voters.
Over the next four months, four elections will impact the Kurds directly and indirectly. Recent provincial council elections in Iraq exposed internal Shiite conflicts, triggering a political crisis in Anbar and Kirkuk. The Kurdistan parliamentary elections are crucial for institutional legitimacy and shaping the political landscape. Concerns about public participation, domestic competition for leadership mechanisms, and discussions about Iran's next year's elections have left a significant mark. In Turkey, the main focus of the March 2024 elections is expected to be major city municipalities, potentially reshaping the country's political dynamics.
In the Kurdistan Region, it's widely understood that elections cannot proceed without the KDP, just as they are incomplete without the PUK. Moreover, the potential absence of the KDP from the elections could trigger a chain of events impacting the security of the development road, and Iraq as a whole.
During the seminar, Bakhtiar Mam Sheikh delved into the intricacies of the UK’s democratic system and electoral processes, offering a comparative analysis of the election mechanisms in the Kurdistan Region and Iraq. He provided a detailed overview of the UK's transition from monarchy and authoritarian rule to a democratic system, emphasizing the significance of long-established democratic institutions and electoral practices. The seminar shed light on the unique challenges faced by the UK throughout its democratic evolution, while also highlighting lessons that could be relevant for the Kurdistan Region's own journey toward strengthening its democratic foundations.
Contrary to predictions of a prolonged and arduous process of government formation, the likelihood of a government being established sooner than expected is quite high. However, before delving into that, it is crucial to examine the election results. While some parties have expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome, if we consider the preliminary results announced by the Election Commission, it is clear that the elections have not drastically altered the political landscape of the Kurdistan Region. Instead, they have solidified a powerful triangle of influence between the PUK, PDK, and the New Generation, positioning these three entities to have a greater impact on future events in the region than any other party.
