Budget

This webinar, moderated by Mahmood Baban, focused on the issues surrounding the Iraqi Population Growth and the UNFPA plan to help and support the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Region.

Although Iraq's revenues have exceeded $90 billion this year, the government could not set a budget for 2022, the same as in 2020. However, the Iraqi government is now preparing the 2023 budget. Due to the central bank's reserves and oil prices, the 2023 budget is expected to be the most significant proposed budget for Parliament in the modern history of Iraq.

This budget, which the Kurds seem to have reluctantly accepted due to internal pressures may hold a minefield of unintended consequences and conflicts

While Kurdish ambitions have aspired to be a pivotal force in post-2003 Iraq, they have struggled to retain control and influence in Baghdad

Despite its substantial size and significant spending, the budget's ratification has set new precedents and instigated political and structural discord with deep implications

For instance, a substantial gap of 1 trillion 258 billion dinars is evident in the total expenditures alone. This discrepancy has been identified by multiple entities, including the Ministry of Finance, the Parliamentary Finance Committee, the Iraqi High Economic Council, and 327 Members of Parliament (pp. 60-63). What adds an intriguing dimension to this issue is the variance in expenditures for Anbar province, a matter that should have garnered the attention of the speaker and Sunni members within the finance committee. While the allocated budget for Anbar province was originally set at 466 billion dinars, the actual sum tallies up to just 436 billion dinars. Thus, this stark contrast amounts to a substantial 30 billion dinars in the collection of the allocated budget for this province!

Another pivotal aspect of these negotiations pertains to the complex issue of oil compensation, how to remunerate companies for each barrel of oil produced. In the 2023 budget, the Kurdistan Region has committed to delivering 400,000 barrels of oil daily to SOMO. However, the method of covering the production and transportation costs remains ambiguous.

On November 14, 2023, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance published a financial report detailing expenditures and revenues over the past nine months. Notably, no dinars were allocated to the Kurdistan Region; instead, funds were sourced from loans and banks. The report indicates total expenditures of 78.25 trillion dinars and combined oil and non-oil revenues of 95.84 trillion dinars, resulting in a surplus of 17.59 trillion dinars compared to expenditures

In terms of revenue, the budget projected Iraq's total revenue in 2023 to reach 134.5 trillion dinars, comprising 117.2 trillion dinars from oil revenue and 17.3 trillion dinars from non-oil revenue. However, according to the Ministry of Finance's annual report, Iraq's total oil and non-oil revenues amounted to 135.6 trillion dinars, with oil revenues at 125.8 trillion dinars and non-oil revenues at 9.7 trillion dinars.

An annual budget consists of the collection of revenues and their redistribution towards expenditures. The main principle of budgeting is to maintain a balance between revenues and expenditures by increasing revenue sources and reducing expenditures. However, in Iraq, this has been the opposite. Over the past two decades, for example, expenses have increased 29-fold, while revenues have increased only eight-and-a-half times.

There is daily talk in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region about projects costing millions of dollars, as foreign investors have shown their full readiness to invest in these projects. Still, in reality, these projects have nothing but names. Even projects that have already signed their contracts have not been yet constructed like the project of Faw Port, Total Energy Deal, building the headquarters of the Central Bank of Iraq, and also the Chinese project in the Kurdistan Region named “Happy City”.

In its annual report, "World Economic Outlook,"[1] the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 4.1% GDP growth rate for Iraq in 2025. This forecast aligns with a stable global growth rate of 3.2% across 195 countries, although developing countries, including Iraq, are expected to experience a higher growth trajectory, from a low 0.1% to a notable 4.1%. Although this projection is optimistic, it raises an important question: what factors have led the IMF to foresee such growth for Iraq?

The three-year Iraqi budget provided a comprehensive framework for the country’s revenues and expenditures based on initial estimates. However, the recent census has corrected these estimates, revealing significant discrepancies. As the time approaches to amend and approve the 2025 budget tables, it is imperative to review expenditures, provincial allocations, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) budget, and revenue projections.

The amount of money sold, domestically and internationally, by the Central Bank in dollars this year has exceeded $62 billion, resulting in the receipt of dinars in equivalent proportion, averaging approximately 80.6 trillion dinars for the year. Non-oil revenues generated from taxes, fees, and customs by the end of October 2024 amounted to 14.3 trillion dinars. Combined, these revenues total around 95 trillion dinars. However, by the end of October, Iraq's total expenditures had reached 122 trillion dinars. With two months of expenditures still unaccounted for, it is evident that the dinar reserves derived from oil-based dollar revenues have been exhausted.