Analysis

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Analysis

One Currency, Two Rates: What’s Next for the Future of the Iraqi Dinar?

Mahmood Baban

In fact, the reasons behind the fluctuations in the value of the dollar in Iraq, as we see these days, there may be other stories about the Iraqi dollar, in cash, going out to other countries, but not through the dollar markets in Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Basra, and Baghdad because what is presented in cash and the central bank's figures is less than half the value of Iranian exports to Iraq, let alone the Iranian state through the market to get dollars.

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Analysis

The Post-Nasrallah Era: Shifting the Balance of Power Between Israel and the Resistance Front

Ziryan Rojhelati

During a visit to Beijing, I found myself engrossed in a conversation with a Chinese Communist Party official, who spoke at length about his country’s distinctive development path. He drew a clear distinction between China’s approach and the historical experiences of both the Soviet Union and the West, emphasizing that China's model was built on peace and cooperation, not war or aggression. I had many questions about his speech, but I reflected on how closely this echoed Iran’s slogan, “Neither East nor West,” my thoughts were suddenly interrupted by breaking news on my phone: the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah. Despite being over 7,000 kilometers from Beirut, the weight of the news was undeniable.

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Analysis

OPEC´s Outlook for 2050: Optimistic Bases and Future Scenarios for Oil

Mahmood Baban

In contrast to the International Energy Agency's forecast for the future of oil, OPEC predicts a 24 percent increase in energy demand by 2050, primarily driven by non-OECD countries, with India and China being the main contributors to this surge. According to OPEC, coal will be the only energy source to see a decline in demand over the next 25 years, while global daily oil demand is expected to reach 120 million barrels per day.

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Analysis

Oil Price Instability and Iraq in 2025

Mahmood Baban

In 2023, according to Iraq’s revenue and expenditure report, 93% of the country’s total revenue emanated from oil, amounting to 125.8 trillion dinars. In contrast, non-oil revenue stood at just 9.7 trillion dinars, or 7% of the total, a sharp deviation from the budget’s initial projections for oil and non-oil revenues.

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Analysis

A Leap From the Third to the First World: China's Story

Mahmood Baban

The country’s rapid rise from Third World status to a global superpower, lifting 800 million people out of poverty within a single generation (World Bank, April 1, 2022)[ii], serves as a model for developing nations. Nevertheless, developing countries are eager for the changes brought by China’s infrastructure initiatives, but China’s approach to assistance differs from others as Chinese experts emphasize. “We’re not like the Americans; we can’t offer help for free because our country is still developing,”. However, with long-term loans and Chinese workforces, they believe they can assist in building infrastructure abroad. This duality makes China's presence in developing countries both an opportunity and a potential threat.

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Analysis

The Unexplored Side of the Controversy Over Qasim Shasho’s Statement: Sinjar's Disputes

Ziryan Rojhelati

In April 2017, I visited Sinjar for research and met Shasho at the Sharaf Adin Temple. His proud demeanor revealed the mindset of a courageous Peshmerga, eager to declare, "I defended and stayed here when Sinjar was under ISIS's control." However, he is now being portrayed as an anti-Islamic figure who has offended the sentiments of the majority of Kurdish Muslims. When I met him, he spoke cautiously, carefully choosing his words to ensure that his criticisms of ISIS were not misconstrued as anti-Islamic.

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Analysis

Intricate Dimensions of the Turkey-PKK Conflicts in the Kurdistan Region

Ziryan Rojhelati

Following Eid al-Adha, a new wave of military movements between Turkish forces and the PKK has erupted in Duhok province. The clashes are particularly intense in the northern district of Amedi, but there is a significant possibility of the conflict spreading to Mount Gara, located over 40 kilometers deep within the Kurdistan Region. This potential escalation marks a turning point, with implications for the region's political and military landscape. Given the current situation in the Middle East, this conflict is likely to persist longer than anticipated.

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Analysis

Oil Contracts and Production Costs in the Kurdistan Region

Mahmood Baban

The cost of producing a barrel of oil varies by country, field, and management model. For instance, it costs $24 per barrel in the United States and $21 in Norway. In Nigeria, recent contractual changes have increased production costs from $28.90 to $48 per barrel.

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Analysis

The Lack of Foreign Investment in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region

Mahmood Baban

There is daily talk in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region about projects costing millions of dollars, as foreign investors have shown their full readiness to invest in these projects. Still, in reality, these projects have nothing but names. Even projects that have already signed their contracts have not been yet constructed like the project of Faw Port, Total Energy Deal, building the headquarters of the Central Bank of Iraq, and also the Chinese project in the Kurdistan Region named “Happy City”.

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Analysis

Political Dynamics and Voter Engagement in Iran's Upcoming Election

Ziryan Rojhelati

The decision to allow a prominent reformist candidate to participate may aim to boost public engagement, marking a departure from past elections where such candidates were excluded. Internal conservative rivalries, coupled with competition from Massoud Pezeshkian, could influence voter turnout.

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Analysis

Budget Surprises: Iraq's Annual Revenues and Expenditures Differ from Estimates!

Mahmood Baban

An annual budget consists of the collection of revenues and their redistribution towards expenditures. The main principle of budgeting is to maintain a balance between revenues and expenditures by increasing revenue sources and reducing expenditures. However, in Iraq, this has been the opposite. Over the past two decades, for example, expenses have increased 29-fold, while revenues have increased only eight-and-a-half times.

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Analysis

Europe’s Role in Achieving sustainable Peace in Palestine and Kurdistan

Ziryan Rojhelati

Europe's efforts to support the Palestinian cause are commendable. However, in reality, peace, justice, and stability in the Middle East will remain elusive without addressing the Kurdish issue. David Fromkin begins his book A Peace to End All Peace with a quote from a British officer, stating that after a war that ended all wars, they made a peace that destroyed all peace. More than a century has passed since that unresolved reconciliation, yet the problems persist. Therefore, what is needed this time is a genuine reconciliation, one that truly resolves the underlying issues.

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Analysis

The Kurdish Cause and Erdogan’s Visit to Iraq and the Kurdistan Region

Ziryan Rojhelati

Apart from economic reasons, however, the Kurdish cause has deeper roots for Erdogan. There is no doubt that Erdogan, who has remained in power longer than any other Turkish leader and has a chance of directing Turkish policy for at least another four years, has come closer to the Kurdish cause than anyone else. If we include the reforms for the European Union membership process, the AKP has put the Kurdish cause on the agenda of Turkey between 2002 and 2015, directly and indirectly during its 13 years of rule.

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Analysis

Baghdad's Push and Erbil's Silence: KRG Gas Sales to Iraq

Mahmood Baban

The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity has reiterated its intention to purchase gas from the KRG in the upcoming months. Dana Gas previously announced the completion of an additional 250 million cubic feet of gas production, slated for availability in the second quarter of this year. However, it remains uncertain whether this supply will be allocated for power plants within the Kurdistan Region or Iraq at large.

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Analysis

Iraq's Financial Transparency: The 2023 Budget Figures and Ministry of Finance Reports on Expenditures and Revenues

Mahmood Baban

In terms of revenue, the budget projected Iraq's total revenue in 2023 to reach 134.5 trillion dinars, comprising 117.2 trillion dinars from oil revenue and 17.3 trillion dinars from non-oil revenue. However, according to the Ministry of Finance's annual report, Iraq's total oil and non-oil revenues amounted to 135.6 trillion dinars, with oil revenues at 125.8 trillion dinars and non-oil revenues at 9.7 trillion dinars.