Analysis

Iraq plans to increase its refinery capacity to 1.25 million barrels of crude oil in the coming years. Apart from its five official refineries, the Kurdistan Region owns dozens of small and medium-sized unofficial refineries in Erbil, Sulaimani, and Duhok provinces. Collectively, these facilities currently refine over 286,000 barrels of crude oil daily, exporting their products to domestic markets.

Approximately 6.6 million voters participated in the Iraqi provincial council elections, 41% of those eligible to vote. However, with a total of more than 26 million voters, this election and its results represent approximately 25% of all eligible voters. The significance lies not solely in reflecting voter will but in its potential to drive crucial political developments

The upcoming December 18, 2023, provincial elections pose a crucial choice for the new Iraqi civilian forces aligning with the October 2019 demonstrations. It's a dilemma between potential further decline or the chance to secure a popular base and influence within local councils. Success in these elections could pave the way for increased support in the 2025 parliamentary elections, while failure might have the opposite effect.

On February 6, 2024, the Iraqi Oil Ministry is set to unveil the victors of the fifth+ and sixth rounds of oil and gas contracts covering 30 fields. While major firms from the United States and Britain have opted out, Chinese and Russian companies are eager to expand. Notably, the French have reached a historic agreement, and there are calls from the Gulf, particularly Saudi Aramco, for a reevaluation of the contract structures.

As Iraq's provincial council elections draw near, the remaining days carry heightened political and security sensitivity. Even in the absence of major disruptions and with the elections unfolding as scheduled, Iraq is poised for a transformative phase

Over the next four months, four elections will impact the Kurds directly and indirectly. Recent provincial council elections in Iraq exposed internal Shiite conflicts, triggering a political crisis in Anbar and Kirkuk. The Kurdistan parliamentary elections are crucial for institutional legitimacy and shaping the political landscape. Concerns about public participation, domestic competition for leadership mechanisms, and discussions about Iran's next year's elections have left a significant mark. In Turkey, the main focus of the March 2024 elections is expected to be major city municipalities, potentially reshaping the country's political dynamics.

As the world eagerly awaits COP 28, a significant United Nations and UAE summit dedicated to addressing, adapting, and allocating funds for mitigating natural disasters and climate change impacts on Earth. Global markets stand in anticipation of decisions stemming from the postponed meeting of OPEC and OPEC Plus.

On November 14, 2023, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance published a financial report detailing expenditures and revenues over the past nine months. Notably, no dinars were allocated to the Kurdistan Region; instead, funds were sourced from loans and banks. The report indicates total expenditures of 78.25 trillion dinars and combined oil and non-oil revenues of 95.84 trillion dinars, resulting in a surplus of 17.59 trillion dinars compared to expenditures

We will delve into the intricacies of importing gas from Turkmenistan, the commitment made by Sudani, and the destiny of multibillion-dollar projects designed to eradicate gas flaring and combustion in the oil and gas fields of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.

The ousting of Mohammed Halbousi from the parliamentary speaker's position is poised to directly influence the upcoming provincial council elections scheduled for next month.

Within the ongoing research project “The Condition of Life of Women in Iraq and the Kurdistan region”, Dr Ana Cristina Marques analyses the preliminary results focusing on women’s economic empowerment through paid employment.

This visit comes at a particularly sensitive time for the Sudani’s government, which is facing significant pressure. On one hand, the Sadrists have reentered the political arena with heightened enthusiasm, putting pressure on the government over its approach to the war. Following the attack on the Swedish embassy, the Gaza conflict has taken on crucial significance in domestic politics for the Sadrists. They aim to accomplish two goals with this approach: firstly, to take charge of the Palestinian issue and position themselves as heroes within the Shiite world, rather than leaving it to the armed groups of the Iraqi Islamic Resistance.

As per the central bank's data, the gap between the market and central bank exchange rates has traditionally fallen within the range of 10 to 50 dinars per dollar. However, since the start of this year, this difference has significantly widened, often exceeding 100 dinars and occasionally reaching as high as 300 dinars. These disparities starkly contrast with standard “ financial and banking regulations”, which typically consider a range of 1 to 5 thousand Iraqi dinars or 1% to 3% as normal.

Another pivotal aspect of these negotiations pertains to the complex issue of oil compensation, how to remunerate companies for each barrel of oil produced. In the 2023 budget, the Kurdistan Region has committed to delivering 400,000 barrels of oil daily to SOMO. However, the method of covering the production and transportation costs remains ambiguous.

The growth of industries in Iraq is substantial. The oil sector alone daily consumes 388 million liters, with certain fields sourcing water from the Euphrates River. The cement sector's annual water consumption, largely from rivers and wells, reaches 10.2 billion liters. Steam electricity production uses 114 million liters, and the steel and iron industries require 2.8 billion liters of water annually.

The Israeli-Hamas conflict has the potential to be a transformative moment in the Kurdistan Region's global political positioning, which had experienced a period of marginalization in the aftermath of ISIS. Primarily, the unforeseen offensive by Hamas underscores the geopolitical significance of Iran's sustained pressure on the Kurdistan Region concerning the eastern opposition groups over the past year. This pressure, in the current context, acquires enhanced political relevance.

Most of Iraq’s leading political and religious figures have reacted to the Hamas-led “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack on Israel, affirming their support for the Palestinians, yet without making any concrete commitment to help the people of Gaza.

Amidst the uncertainties of the Hamas-Israel war, it is evident that the less powerful entities possess the potential to bolster their positions, highlighting that sheer strength alone is insufficient for safeguarding a state or a faction. Central to this transformation is the rapid proliferation of advanced warfare technology, empowering both state and non-state actors to engage in strategic maneuvers.

In the upcoming provincial council elections, a significant development unfolds as the formidable Al-Hassm al-Watani coalition ( National Coalition), one of Iraq's largest political fronts, enters the competition in Sunni provinces, contending against three other major fronts. Notably, the leading contender is Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi's list, known as "Taqaddum."

Presently, the combined daily production from 13 gas and oil fields, including the Khor Mor oil and gas field, which produces both condensate and gas, stands at an impressive average of 220,000 barrels. These resources are exported to domestic refineries and cater to the domestic market's demand.

In accordance with a comprehensive report conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, specifically the Yachiyo Engineering Company, pertaining to waste data analysis in Iraq, with a particular emphasis on both the capital cities and the Basra province, as of 2022, it has been clarified that each individual in Iraq generates an approximate daily waste output of 1.36 kilograms. This figure significantly surpasses the global average waste generation per capita, which stands at 0.74 kilograms. Consequently, the cumulative daily waste collection in Iraq amounts to an alarming 20,000 tons, while the Kurdistan Region contributes an additional 6,900 tons to this considerable waste burden.