The consequences and future of Iraq's political deadlock
In recent years, the activities of ISIS have escalated in Iraq which once again drew attention to the terrorist organization. Despite Iraq’s announcement on December 9, 2017, to expel ISIS and impose its control over the entire territory of the country, including the border with Syria, the organization’s sleeper cells never ended and the terrorist organization was later able to carry out many remarkable operations in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, and Syria.
After Al-Sadr withdrawal from Parliament in June 2022, the Shiite coordination framework acted as if their prominent opponent had surrendered and left the ground for them.
After the release of the first three parts of the leaked audio recordings of Nouri al-Maliki, everyone was waiting for Sadr’s reaction, but he directed his supporters to focus on organizing Friday prayers and not pay attention to the leaks since, “they do not give him a value”.
Al-Sadr’s prayer and Biden’s visit to the Middle East are two important events of the past days that could chart the way of forming the next Iraqi government. Al-Sadr’s prayer determined the future steps for forming the government and affected the entire political process in Iraq. While Biden’s visit and the results of this visit will affect Iran’s presence in Iraq and the region, as Iran is the closest foreign country to the coordination framework that aspires to form the new Iraqi government.
Attacks conducted by “illegal” Iraqi armed groups are increasing on oil and gas investments in the Kurdistan Region. According to reports, companies operating in the oil and gas sector in the Kurdistan Region have been forced to work with less staffing.
Unlike the previous missile attacks that targeted Erbil and its surroundings, this time, there were three missile attacks on the Khor Mor gas field in the Chamchamal district of Sulaimani.
A few days ago, 56th US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger told the Sunday Times about the fundamental Middle East and Asia issues that have afflicted Europe and the United States.
In Muqtada Al-Sadr’s meeting with his deputies on the evening of the 15th of June, Sadr dismissed doubts about the possibility of retracting the resignation of his representatives. This is what makes the Shiite coordination framework bear the responsibility of managing the following stage, while previously they were only wishing to participate.
When Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, had met in Ankara on Wednesday, 8 June, the fiery statements issued by senior Turkish officials and President Erdoğan, regarding an imminent Turkish military operation in areas in the north and northeast Syria, have decreased.
After eight months of conflict and political deadlock, Muqtada Al-Sadr extricated himself from bearing the responsibility of political and governmental crisis. Sadr implemented his threat of withdrawing from the Parliament. Some reasons for Sadr’s withdrawal are personal, and some are related to his vision of confronting his Shiite rivals. However, this withdrawal created a significant imbalance in the political process, and since June 12th evening, the fate of Iraq has become unknown.
Iraq’s oil ministry has issued two letters and tried two different ways this month and increased its attempts to seize and remove oil and gas companies from dealing with the Kurdistan Region. First, by sending a letter to international oil and gas companies in the Kurdistan Region to deal directly with the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO).
After Muqtada al-Sadr’s one-month deadline bore no fruit, the Shiite Coordination Framework and Sadr, who leads the parliament’s largest bloc with 74 seats, put forth different suggestions to put an end to the political deadlock. However, none of the initiatives has helped end the impasse yet.
The day after the recent tensions between the Iraqi army and the YBŞ on March 2, Iraqi Commander-in-Chief Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah went to Shingal. Then the military declared that “Shingal is safe now.” Occasionally, the relations between the Iraqi army and YBŞ get cold blood, and they face each other.
Three big Russian oil companies have the capital of about $14 billion in investment in the field of oil and gas in the Iraq and Kurdistan region. Gazprom produces 30,000 barrels of oil and 40 million cubic feet of gas daily in the Sarqala field, and Lukoil produces about 500,000 barrels of oil at the Western Qurna2 oil field in Basra.
The Turkish Defense Minister announced the claw-lock operation in the Metina, Zap and Avashin-Basyan areas. And it looks like it’s an extension of the same seven operations called the Claw, which started in May 2019.
On March 7, 2022, the price of one barrel of oil has raised to 140$, which is the highest price record for the past 12 years. The increase was in ways that in less than 24 hours, the price raised 30% percent, following the announcement from Biden administration and U.S. Congress that they are preparing a ruling to ban oil importation from Russia
The attack in Erbil is part of a continued Iran policy, but this time it comes at a sensitive time for Iraq, the Middle East and the World; it is a direct or indirect targeting of an area or a place that it sees as its enemy.
The politicized ruling of Iraqi Federal Supreme Court on February 15, 2022, emerged great risks and oppositely great opportunities to the future of Kurdistan Region oil and gas industry, in which we need to, analyze the decision in terms of current changes and future contributors of global energy security providers. In this analysis, the risks of petitioning cases against Kurdistan Region oil and gas in the international courts, submission of new cases on the companies, and opportunities in front of Kurdistan Region oil and more especially gas industry, will be discussed.
Kurdistan is about 1500 kilometers far from the Donbas region where Russia has generated the instability. However, the political effect of the crisis on Kurds is not as far as the geographical distance.
In the past few days, Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), had an engaging interview with BBC. His statements are important to help understand the negotiations of government formation and Iran’s role in Iraq.