It seems the Syrian civil war will come to an end, and likely by the end Syrian president Bashar al -Assad retake all the country’s territory. The current situation of Syria is like post war era where regional and major powers are picking up the war achievements.
The Turkish Defense Minister announced the claw-lock operation in the Metina, Zap and Avashin-Basyan areas. And it looks like it’s an extension of the same seven operations called the Claw, which started in May 2019.
When Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, had met in Ankara on Wednesday, 8 June, the fiery statements issued by senior Turkish officials and President Erdoğan, regarding an imminent Turkish military operation in areas in the north and northeast Syria, have decreased.
Less than a month ago, Assad, in the Arab League, was confidently advising the leaders of Islamic countries on what to do. This situation seems to confirm the well-known saying, "In totalitarian regimes, everything seems normal until 15 minutes before they collapse." Indeed, it was just 15 minutes before Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies captured Aleppo on November 27, followed by the rapid fall of other cities, like a line of falling dominoes.
Considering the experience of previous Turkish operations in the Jarablus-Bab, Afrin and Sarê Kani lines—one lasting about two months, another eight days, and the third approximately seven months—and given that three sides of Kobane are now occupied and its area is limited, it can be said that if Turkey wishes to invade Kobane, it could occupy the city relatively quickly. However, Turkey's task may not be easy due to SDF's defensive preparations, such as tunnels and other defensive measures, as well as the use of drones. Despite these challenges, Turkey could ultimately invade the city. Yet, it does not appear eager to do so because:
Most likely, the countries' "Great Game" in present-day Syria will have a significant impact on reshaping the power balances in West Asia. Syria in the era of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is the intersection point of three major regional geopolitical projects: the dream of Greater Turkey that Erdogan has been talking about for years, the Iranian-Shiite Resistance Axis, and the Israeli project! This runs parallel with the global power game that has now spread across Asia-Pacific, the North Pole, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Similar to the years following World War I, everyone is struggling to find their place in these great games. Regarding the Kurds, unlike before when they were left out of the games, there are now more opportunities available for the Kurds than before, and perhaps Assad's fall might open the door to a Kurdish spring, although the risks of history repeating itself are not small.
