From the 1990s onwards, a number of countries across South America, Africa and the former USSR transitioning from authoritarian towards democratic rule and/or recovering from prolonged intrastate conflict have pursued reconciliation projects.
The early elections on October 10th 2021 is for the fifth term of Iraqi parliament, but from now eyes are intensifying on the position of next Prime Minister which will get confidence from parliament and to decide on these talks there are some likely scenarios to form future Iraqi government.
Preliminary Analysis for the Iraqi Elections Outcome
The Iraqi early elections finally took place, but as it was expected after a day of silence the political blocs started to protest and reject early results, and the likely scenarios and talks to form next cabinet may take longer time.
Iraq After Biden's Visit and Al-Sadr's Prayer
Al-Sadr’s prayer and Biden’s visit to the Middle East are two important events of the past days that could chart the way of forming the next Iraqi government. Al-Sadr’s prayer determined the future steps for forming the government and affected the entire political process in Iraq. While Biden’s visit and the results of this visit will affect Iran’s presence in Iraq and the region, as Iran is the closest foreign country to the coordination framework that aspires to form the new Iraqi government.
After Al-Sadr withdrawal from Parliament in June 2022, the Shiite coordination framework acted as if their prominent opponent had surrendered and left the ground for them.
Powerful Comeback from Sadr
A speech from Al-Sadr was enough to end the confrontations between members and supporters of the Sadrist Movement with some armed Shiite groups. After the announced “retirement”, this step was a strong return for Al-Sadr
The Post Arbaeen and Internal Shiite Crisis Escalation Stage
Many people are monitoring what will change in Iraqi politics or the internal Shiite conflict after the ceremonies of the “Arbaeen” of Imam Hussein. Even if there was consensus among the politicians and the government was formed or an escalation such as the one we witnessed before Ashura occurs again, the conflict and competition within the Shiite component will continue for several years and will remain an essential element in the region's politics.
The RRC, in collaboration with Yarmouk Center for Strategic Studies and Planning organized a workshop on Kurdish-Sunni relations