Analysis

While the new Iraqi government is less than a month old, Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani's visit to Baghdad might be considered normal. Barzani could have made this visit to confirm his support for the new PM

In the upcoming days, Bahrain will host the 2022 Manama Dialogue again. The Manama Dialogue is scheduled from November 18th to the 20th of the same month. It is worth noting that this year's edition focuses on energy security rather than security and military issues

As demonstrations and protests continued in Iran for two months, the Revolutionary Guards conducted missile and drone attacks on three different locations in the Kurdistan Regional. This is the second attack in less than two months. The attacks were justified by the presence of the Rozhelatian parties (Kurdish opposition to the Iranian Regime) in the Kurdistan Region.

In the past few months, confronting Al-Sadr and preventing Kadhimi to stay at the office were two factors that unified the Coordination Framework for a while. However, now Sadr temporarily is somehow not there and Khadhimi is not the PM anymore

A few days after being arrested due to the rules and regulations of the Islamic “Hijab”, scarf in Iran, Mahsa (Zhina) Amini died in Taran. Zhina was a Kurdish Lady from Iran. Her death left common grief from Kurdistan to all over Iran.

Many people are monitoring what will change in Iraqi politics or the internal Shiite conflict after the ceremonies of the “Arbaeen” of Imam Hussein. Even if there was consensus among the politicians and the government was formed or an escalation such as the one we witnessed before Ashura occurs again, the conflict and competition within the Shiite component will continue for several years and will remain an essential element in the region's politics.

A speech from Al-Sadr was enough to end the confrontations between members and supporters of the Sadrist Movement with some armed Shiite groups. After the announced “retirement”, this step was a strong return for Al-Sadr

The consequences and future of Iraq's political deadlock

In recent years, the activities of ISIS have escalated in Iraq which once again drew attention to the terrorist organization. Despite Iraq’s announcement on December 9, 2017, to expel ISIS and impose its control over the entire territory of the country, including the border with Syria, the organization’s sleeper cells never ended and the terrorist organization was later able to carry out many remarkable operations in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, and Syria.

After Al-Sadr withdrawal from Parliament in June 2022, the Shiite coordination framework acted as if their prominent opponent had surrendered and left the ground for them.

After the release of the first three parts of the leaked audio recordings of Nouri al-Maliki, everyone was waiting for Sadr’s reaction, but he directed his supporters to focus on organizing Friday prayers and not pay attention to the leaks since, “they do not give him a value”.

Al-Sadr’s prayer and Biden’s visit to the Middle East are two important events of the past days that could chart the way of forming the next Iraqi government. Al-Sadr’s prayer determined the future steps for forming the government and affected the entire political process in Iraq. While Biden’s visit and the results of this visit will affect Iran’s presence in Iraq and the region, as Iran is the closest foreign country to the coordination framework that aspires to form the new Iraqi government.

Attacks conducted by “illegal” Iraqi armed groups are increasing on oil and gas investments in the Kurdistan Region. According to reports, companies operating in the oil and gas sector in the Kurdistan Region have been forced to work with less staffing.

Unlike the previous missile attacks that targeted Erbil and its surroundings, this time, there were three missile attacks on the Khor Mor gas field in the Chamchamal district of Sulaimani.

A few days ago, 56th US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger told the Sunday Times about the fundamental Middle East and Asia issues that have afflicted Europe and the United States.

In Muqtada Al-Sadr’s meeting with his deputies on the evening of the 15th of June, Sadr dismissed doubts about the possibility of retracting the resignation of his representatives. This is what makes the Shiite coordination framework bear the responsibility of managing the following stage, while previously they were only wishing to participate.

When Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, had met in Ankara on Wednesday, 8 June, the fiery statements issued by senior Turkish officials and President Erdoğan, regarding an imminent Turkish military operation in areas in the north and northeast Syria, have decreased.

After eight months of conflict and political deadlock, Muqtada Al-Sadr extricated himself from bearing the responsibility of political and governmental crisis. Sadr implemented his threat of withdrawing from the Parliament. Some reasons for Sadr’s withdrawal are personal, and some are related to his vision of confronting his Shiite rivals. However, this withdrawal created a significant imbalance in the political process, and since June 12th evening, the fate of Iraq has become unknown.

Iraq’s oil ministry has issued two letters and tried two different ways this month and increased its attempts to seize and remove oil and gas companies from dealing with the Kurdistan Region. First, by sending a letter to international oil and gas companies in the Kurdistan Region to deal directly with the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO).

After Muqtada al-Sadr’s one-month deadline bore no fruit, the Shiite Coordination Framework and Sadr, who leads the parliament’s largest bloc with 74 seats, put forth different suggestions to put an end to the political deadlock. However, none of the initiatives has helped end the impasse yet.

The day after the recent tensions between the Iraqi army and the YBŞ on March 2, Iraqi Commander-in-Chief Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah went to Shingal. Then the military declared that “Shingal is safe now.” Occasionally, the relations between the Iraqi army and YBŞ get cold blood, and they face each other.