Analysis

Image
Analysis

Kurdish Crossroads; The Impact of Four Key Elections in the Middle East

Ziryan Rojhelati

Over the next four months, four elections will impact the Kurds directly and indirectly. Recent provincial council elections in Iraq exposed internal Shiite conflicts, triggering a political crisis in Anbar and Kirkuk. The Kurdistan parliamentary elections are crucial for institutional legitimacy and shaping the political landscape. Concerns about public participation, domestic competition for leadership mechanisms, and discussions about Iran's next year's elections have left a significant mark. In Turkey, the main focus of the March 2024 elections is expected to be major city municipalities, potentially reshaping the country's political dynamics.

Image
Analysis

COP 28; A New Era in Oil Producers and Consumers Dynamics

Mahmood Baban

As the world eagerly awaits COP 28, a significant United Nations and UAE summit dedicated to addressing, adapting, and allocating funds for mitigating natural disasters and climate change impacts on Earth. Global markets stand in anticipation of decisions stemming from the postponed meeting of OPEC and OPEC Plus.

Image
Analysis

From Nil to Nil: Baghdad's Fiscal Allocation to the Kurdistan Region

Mahmood Baban

On November 14, 2023, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance published a financial report detailing expenditures and revenues over the past nine months. Notably, no dinars were allocated to the Kurdistan Region; instead, funds were sourced from loans and banks. The report indicates total expenditures of 78.25 trillion dinars and combined oil and non-oil revenues of 95.84 trillion dinars, resulting in a surplus of 17.59 trillion dinars compared to expenditures

Image
Analysis

Sudani’s Diplomatic Moves in Tehran Amid the Shadow of War in the Region

Ziryan Rojhelati

This visit comes at a particularly sensitive time for the Sudani’s government, which is facing significant pressure. On one hand, the Sadrists have reentered the political arena with heightened enthusiasm, putting pressure on the government over its approach to the war. Following the attack on the Swedish embassy, the Gaza conflict has taken on crucial significance in domestic politics for the Sadrists. They aim to accomplish two goals with this approach: firstly, to take charge of the Palestinian issue and position themselves as heroes within the Shiite world, rather than leaving it to the armed groups of the Iraqi Islamic Resistance.

Image
Analysis

Value of Iraqi Dinar Against US Dollar!

Mahmood Baban

As per the central bank's data, the gap between the market and central bank exchange rates has traditionally fallen within the range of 10 to 50 dinars per dollar. However, since the start of this year, this difference has significantly widened, often exceeding 100 dinars and occasionally reaching as high as 300 dinars. These disparities starkly contrast with standard “ financial and banking regulations”, which typically consider a range of 1 to 5 thousand Iraqi dinars or 1% to 3% as normal.

Image
Analysis

Climate Change in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region: Consequences of Increased Oil, Electricity, Cement, and Iron Production on Water

Mahmood Baban

The growth of industries in Iraq is substantial. The oil sector alone daily consumes 388 million liters, with certain fields sourcing water from the Euphrates River. The cement sector's annual water consumption, largely from rivers and wells, reaches 10.2 billion liters. Steam electricity production uses 114 million liters, and the steel and iron industries require 2.8 billion liters of water annually.

Image
Analysis

The Implications of the Hamas-Israel Conflict on Kurdistan

Ziryan Rojhelati

The Israeli-Hamas conflict has the potential to be a transformative moment in the Kurdistan Region's global political positioning, which had experienced a period of marginalization in the aftermath of ISIS. Primarily, the unforeseen offensive by Hamas underscores the geopolitical significance of Iran's sustained pressure on the Kurdistan Region concerning the eastern opposition groups over the past year. This pressure, in the current context, acquires enhanced political relevance.

Image
Analysis

Hamas-Israel Conflict: A Lesson on the Empowerment of the Less Powerful!

Ziryan Rojhelati

Amidst the uncertainties of the Hamas-Israel war, it is evident that the less powerful entities possess the potential to bolster their positions, highlighting that sheer strength alone is insufficient for safeguarding a state or a faction. Central to this transformation is the rapid proliferation of advanced warfare technology, empowering both state and non-state actors to engage in strategic maneuvers.

Image
Analysis

Provincial Elections Sees Rising Shiite Influence on Sunni-populated Cities

Dr. Yassin Taha

In the upcoming provincial council elections, a significant development unfolds as the formidable Al-Hassm al-Watani coalition ( National Coalition), one of Iraq's largest political fronts, enters the competition in Sunni provinces, contending against three other major fronts. Notably, the leading contender is Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi's list, known as "Taqaddum."

Image
Analysis

When is the Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline Set to Resume Operation?

Mahmood Baban

Presently, the combined daily production from 13 gas and oil fields, including the Khor Mor oil and gas field, which produces both condensate and gas, stands at an impressive average of 220,000 barrels. These resources are exported to domestic refineries and cater to the domestic market's demand.

Image
Analysis

Climate Change in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region; Waste Disposal Problems

Mahmood Baban

In accordance with a comprehensive report conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, specifically the Yachiyo Engineering Company, pertaining to waste data analysis in Iraq, with a particular emphasis on both the capital cities and the Basra province, as of 2022, it has been clarified that each individual in Iraq generates an approximate daily waste output of 1.36 kilograms. This figure significantly surpasses the global average waste generation per capita, which stands at 0.74 kilograms. Consequently, the cumulative daily waste collection in Iraq amounts to an alarming 20,000 tons, while the Kurdistan Region contributes an additional 6,900 tons to this considerable waste burden.

Image
Analysis

Iraqi Provincial Council Elections: The Cohesion and Fragmentation of Shiite lists

Dr. Yassin Taha

Intriguingly, a significant number of lists and coalitions, both within and outside the Shiite spectrum, have surfaced as entirely new and unfamiliar entities for this election. This strategic move is aimed at enticing voters and avoiding any lingering consequences from past mistakes. Notably, these Shiite affiliated groups which account for approximately 11 factions, have adopted a dual approach, entering some provinces with a unified list while fielding separate lists in others. Furthermore, they have outlined their intention to initiate a post-election coalition, adding an intriguing twist to the electoral dynamics.

Image
Analysis

Spice Route; A Bitter Pill for Iraq to Swallow

Ziryan Rojhelati

The unveiling of the Spice Route potentially poses a significant setback to Sudani's ambitious vision of bridging Asia and Europe through a development road project. Indeed, global infrastructure endeavors carry both economic and political significance, and this could explain why Iraq finds itself excluded from the recent initiative aimed at linking Asia and Europe, as unveiled during the latest G20 meeting.

Image
Analysis

Discrepancies in Financial Figures of Iraq's 1H 2023 Revenues & Expenditures

Mahmood Baban

For instance, a substantial gap of 1 trillion 258 billion dinars is evident in the total expenditures alone. This discrepancy has been identified by multiple entities, including the Ministry of Finance, the Parliamentary Finance Committee, the Iraqi High Economic Council, and 327 Members of Parliament (pp. 60-63). What adds an intriguing dimension to this issue is the variance in expenditures for Anbar province, a matter that should have garnered the attention of the speaker and Sunni members within the finance committee. While the allocated budget for Anbar province was originally set at 466 billion dinars, the actual sum tallies up to just 436 billion dinars. Thus, this stark contrast amounts to a substantial 30 billion dinars in the collection of the allocated budget for this province!

Image
Analysis

Shiite Groups’ Response to U.S. Military Movements

Dr. Yassin Taha

Alina L. Romanowski, the US Ambassador to Iraq, has asserted that the repositioning of US troops within Iraq constitutes a routine rotational measure, unrelated to the internal dynamics of the country. Romanowski the powerful American woman in Iraq emphasized Washington's dedication to cultivating collaborative ties with Baghdad. In a contrasting perspective, Hashd commander Waad Qaddo, who leads the 30th Brigade, he unveiled that officials in Washington have communicated a clear message to the Iraqi military delegation: their intention to assume control over the Iraqi-Syrian border. As part of this endeavor, they are strategically substituting 2,500 troops with Ohio National guard fighters, In accordance with this, the movement is planned and directed elsewhere.