Political Perspectives and Voter Priorities

Voters’ concerns and expectations offer insights into their political priorities. The issues garnering substantial attention are focused on essential services 56.7%, employment prospects for university graduates 41.8%, settling salary arrears 39.8%, and combating corruption 34.2%. Conversely, the lowest levels of citizen interest are directed towards the electronicization of government institutions 2.1%, expanding freedom of expression 2.6%, and ensuring political stability 5.2%. The call for greater freedom of expression is most pronounced in Zakho, reaching 7.5%. This emphasis on economic matters and public services over democratic ideals highlights the prevailing sentiment.

Garmian autonomous administration holds the highest percentage of individuals advocating for attention to basic service provision at 75.2%. Likewise, Zakho and Garmian lead the way with 52% in their call for employment opportunities for university graduates. Raperin emerges as a significant voice for salary arrears repayment at 56%. Around 44.4% of respondents anticipate minimal political change resulting from the elections, while 46.3% foresee transformative shifts, and 9.4% remain uncertain. Predictions for political change find the highest traction in Zakho at 53.7%. In contrast, Halabja 61% and Sulaymaniyah 56.7% manifest the strongest skepticism regarding anticipated alterations. Intriguingly, gender, education, occupation, and living environment do not significantly alter the opinions about potential political change. A relatively consistent range, between 36% and 40%, express a lack of expectation for change, while a similar proportion, spanning from 43% to 50%, anticipate such shifts.

The survey results reveal that nearly half of respondents are against the opposition participating in the government formation. Specifically, only 34% advocate for the inclusion of opposition parties in the next government, while a substantial 49% comprising half of the Kurdistan Region’s population express the view that the opposition should not partake in the government. Zakho and Sulaymaniyah autonomous administrations emerge as strongholds for the sentiment that the opposition should not be involved in shaping the upcoming government.

The history of the Kurdistan Parliament has been marked by recurrent election postponements. From its inception to its current fifth term, the parliamentary round has been extended eight times. However, the recent attempt for the fifth-term extension was rejected by the Federal Court. When asked about the implications of election postponements, 67% of respondents who had multiple options expressed that it conveyed a sense of disappointment among citizens. This sentiment was most pronounced in Sulaymaniyah province at 80%, closely followed by 55.2% in the Kurdistan Region, indicating that postponements might discourage citizens from seeking political change. Particularly, the autonomous administration of Raperin registered the highest percentage, with 66% of respondents sharing this view.

Regarding the ramifications of delayed elections, 51.3% believed that it could weaken the democratic process in the Kurdistan Region. At the level of the Kurdistan Regional Government, 41.2% saw it as tarnishing the region’s reputation, and 38% viewed it as undermining the citizens’ will. A substantial 71.4% of citizens expressed concerns that repeated postponements could result in the loss of international community support for the Kurdistan Regional Government.

In evaluating the legitimacy of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) institutions, 67% of citizens across the region asserted that a second postponement of elections could jeopardize this legitimacy. In contrast, only 28% held the opposing view. The highest proportions aligning with this concern were found in Sulaymaniyah province 87.8% and Raperin province 86%, while Zakho province 55% and Duhok province 53.8% saw postponements as less likely to undermine the legitimacy of government institutions.

Assessing the performance of the fifth tern of the Kurdistan Parliament, 60.6% of citizens expressed dissatisfaction, while 38.6% were content with its work. The highest discontent rates were in Halabja and Sulaymaniyah provinces, registering 79.6% and 78.9% respectively. Conversely, the administration of Soran exhibited the highest satisfaction level, with 21.3% of respondents expressing approval.

Contrastingly, public sentiment toward the current cabinet reveals 48.8% dissatisfaction and 50.6% satisfaction. The highest dissatisfaction rates emerged in Sulaymaniyah province 82.9%, Halabja 80.6%, Raperin 72.3%, and Garmian 65.6%. In contrast, 50.6% voiced satisfaction, with 24.9% being highly satisfied and 25.7% somewhat satisfied. Notably, the administration of Soran displayed the highest satisfaction levels at 65.4%, followed by Duhok 41.7% and Erbil 37.1%.

When evaluating the performance of Kurdish members in the current Iraqi parliament, the findings reveal a spectrum of sentiments among citizens. A notable 12.3% expressed their high satisfaction, acknowledging the effectiveness of these representatives. However, a more significant proportion, 37.3%, conveyed unequivocal dissatisfaction, while an additional 15% found themselves somewhat dissatisfied, overall 52% of dissatisfaction. Conversely, a smaller 45.9% demonstrated approval, highlighting their contentment with the efforts of these Kurdish parliamentarians. Of these, 33.6% reported a moderate level of satisfaction, while 12.3% echoed the earlier sentiment of being very satisfied with their performance.

A closer examination of these opinions unveils distinct patterns. Within this spectrum, the highest proportion of complete dissatisfaction emerged in the autonomous administrations of Garmian and Raperin, registering 58% and 57% respectively. In contrast, a more optimistic view was expressed by respondents in Soran 19.5% and Duhok 17.9%, where individuals voiced a significant degree of satisfaction.

Considering diverse demographic factors such as educational background, age group, occupational status, and living environment, a consistent pattern emerged. Notably, the range of dissatisfaction reached 31% to 45%, suggesting a notable level of discontent among this segment. On the other hand, those expressing high satisfaction, ranging from 9% to 15%, were fewer in comparison but provided a contrasting perspective.