RRC |

Ali Bayder|

The early elections in Iraq postponed. There are many political and technical obstacles but is still very likely the early elections will take place. Amid this, the newly formed political blocs linked to the anti-government protests are appealing. Despite that both Sadr front and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are two important parties that likely both achieve good results in the early elections.

Will be another postponement of the elections?

Many political parties in the country, especially those present in the parliament and government, seek to create many crises in order to postpone the early elections that the prime minister called for, as these blocs are not ready to participate in the early elections as they are facing great popular rejection because of their failure to achieve the simplest living necessities for Iraqis. This is what brought the government, especially its Prime Minister into a major challenge to the people and the supporters of holding early elections before the end of the current session. The recent position of the Electoral Commission, in which it asked the government to delay the election date to October instead of June of this year, was due to technical reasons. This might be the last postponement as the political and societal situations in the country do not allow any postponement again, and any attempt to do so will lead to precipitating the holding of early elections and will bring it to the next year 2022. and this makes the elections lose the status of “early” and will be held on its normal time as the age of current parliamentary session is about to end, and this increases the state of popular resentment against the political system and makes the international community lose confidence in the Iraqi government and its political system.

The most prominent obstacle standing in the way of holding early elections despite that most of the political blocs do not want to, is the Federal Supreme Court, which has become suspended due to the imbalance of its quorum. And some of its members transferred to retirement and others died. The federal court is the constitutional body that is obligated to approve the election results, so that the winners

After approval, will exercise their duties as members of the legislative authority, and without that, these results are considered to lack constitutional legitimacy. Therefore some political parties delay the approval of the federal court law and prolong the period of discussion of its provisions in parliament in order to gain time to rearrange their internal situation and prepare well for the elections,

But the remaining time to hold the elections is sufficiently enough for the court’s law to be approved, and thus there is no escape from holding the early elections. Any attempt to postpone again will confirm that the political system clearly stands in front of the aspiration and will of the Iraqis to achieve the desired reform and its desire to monopolize power. This will make it one face of monopolizing power and non-compliance with what the people demand for. But some of the current political class seeking real reform, especially the parties that have popular support.

The October revolution political blocs

After five parliamentary sessions and seven governments, the Iraqi street believes that they have not achieved their aspirations for a decent life that is compatible with the size of the sacrifices made by the people throughout the past stages. Tishreen (October) Revolution is a new name that was not taken into account by the most pessimists that through existence of reform steps could upset the balance and plans of political parties and blocs seeking to deepen their roots and cling to power for a longer period. Today the Iraqi political observers  finds that there is decline in popularity of most of the power parties amid increasing demands to keep a large part of them away from the scene with a high degree of societal awareness. With whom all the attempts aimed at fueling sectarian fires and investing them politically did not help. All this will lead to a decline in their political representation in the upcoming elections whose reformist trend runs upward, starting with passing a law that does not allow large blocs to swallow their opponents and banish emerging and young parties from the scene, as happened in all previous elections.

There is major trend asking for voting to be via the updated biometric card, and this will prevent forgery or even voting with proxy that are in the interest of the corrupted politicians. And there is overwhelming popular desire for the international supervision over the elections to ensure a greater degree of transparency. These steps, if they actually take place, will keep many power people away from the scene while others will have more representation because they have the tools for success and competition in all circumstances and climates.

There are many political blocs that have great chances to compete and reserve a wider space in the parliament through the early elections. Among the (231) registered political parties with the electoral commission so far, the newly formed political blocs from the October Revolution are trying to organize their organs and people, and by passing time their popularity increases.

And this is what makes their opponents worry who are working to narrow their way ahead, especially since these new formed blocs do not have much experience and potential, but it relies on the state of community awareness that will become one of the tools of reform in the next stage. Until now, the actual number of the parties that were born from the popular protest squares is not known for many reasons, foremost among which is that it is likely that some of the large parties have exploited the name of Tishreen and have attracted some activists in the demonstrations in order to form front parties that formally impersonate the name of the protesters to achieve their interests and  implement agendas with pseudonyms that are compatible with the new reality of the political arena in the country. Some of the Tishreen blocs have not announced themselves yet, but there are names that have presented themselves as representatives of the demonstrations, some of which are officially registered with the electoral commission, while the other remains under establishment, most notably:

1-The National Home

This party is led by the activist Hussein al-Gharabi which was announced from the city of Nasiriyah and includes activists who participated in the protests in Al-Haboubi Square. As well as political, cultural and social competencies that have never been associated with the current political system, and this is the most prominent characteristic of the National Home, according to its founders.

2-The Imtidad Movement

This new political bloc was announced from the city of Samawah in the south of the country and is led by Alaa al-Rikabi one of the activists of the demonstrations square in the city of Nasiriyah. The organization includes figures and activists of protests from the governorates of Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Babil, and Diwaniyah. This bloc seeks to obtain a parliamentary majority, otherwise it will move towards the opposition in the next parliament, according to its declared political program.

3-The October 25 Movement

This bloc was announced from Baghdad which led by the activist Talal Hariri. Who proposed political projects that were described as bold. at the forefront of which is the real confrontation with Iran and its influence in Iraq, in addition is asking for normalization with Israel, in which he stresses the necessity establishing complete peace on a social level and not being satisfied with only political and diplomatic relations. This proposal angered some who see this as a taboo. The October 25 Movement includes civic activists who participated in the demonstration squares and declared themselves as a secular movement that aims to separate religion from the state.

  Sadr and KDP

In addition to the October political blocs, we must not lose sight of the role of important players in the current Iraqi political process, as they have great potential for success, namely the Sadrist movement and the Kurdistan Democratic Party. We will not sail far in the history of these two blocs, which they have greater potential to achieve than what they obtained in the past. The Sadrist movement has (54) seats in the current parliament, announced that it is seeking to obtain the presidency of the parliament after it was able to acquire (100) parliamentary seats or more, and this is what makes it throw all its cards on the table to achieve its wish that requires a lot of efforts and capabilities. The desires of the Sadrist movement may be fulfilled through the national integrity party, the political wing of the Shiite entity, which has a wide popular base. It is possible that the Sadr movement’s instructions to be fully implemented from doctrinal and ideological perspective that push followers and devotees of the religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr to exert their best efforts to get the highest seats in the next parliament.

The KDP, despite that currently does not have any presidential position in Baghdad, but was able to compete in the previous parliamentary elections on its own, and this did not happen in the country and at the level of major parties. The party was able to obtain (25) parliamentary seats and this made the KDP to become the largest party bloc in the current parliament. This party the Kurdistan Democrat, or known as (Al-Parti) is unique in comparison to the rest of the parties. Over the course of seven decades of (institutional) political and military struggle, the party was able to form an integrated political organization that expanded its area that exceeded the borders of the Kurdistan region. Today, with the political and people conditions in which the country is going through, and after the successes the KDP has achieved for its people at the political and service levels, it may be able to increase the number of its representatives in the next parliament by more than half of what it has now and to be the second player in the new political equation.