گەڕان بۆ baban

Various reasons have been cited to explain why Iraq’s oil and finance ministries publish different reports on the country’s oil revenues, including oil sale terms, the timing of revenue transfers, the authority of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York over Iraq’s oil revenues, and the inspection, auditing, and review mechanisms governing those revenues. While all of these factors play a role, the primary reason lies in the difference in accounting methods.

Syria’s oil and gas fields, including those in the northeast region (Rojava), have changed hands multiple times over the past 16 years. In late January, the country’s new government regained control of nearly the entire sector - about 95 percent - through a combination of conflict and an agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Before the war, Iraq's goal was to reach a production of 6 million barrels of oil per day. Now that figure is becoming a dream, growing more distant day by day from the pre-war level of 4.5 million barrels per day - because Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups are targeting oil and gas fields in Iraq as a result of the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran, and foreign oil companies are withdrawing from Iraq one after another.

The risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are now entering their sixth week in the shadow of the US-Israel war with Iran. In that time, the monthly volume of oil passing through the strait has collapsed from 440 million barrels to just 53 million, and yet the price shock the world was bracing for has not arrived.

Iraq's structured oil revenue system is set to be a financial lifeline, enabling the country to sustain government operations even as oil production collapsed and exports fell to less than 8 percent of normal levels in March.

The energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — following the US-Israel war with Iran — has once again placed Syria and Turkey at the center of global energy discussions, this time as potential new export corridors for Iraqi oil and Qatari gas.

Iraq's oil production capacity has fallen to below 2003 levels in recent days and its exports via the Strait of Hormuz has completely stalled despite ongoing negotiation with the Iranian side to allow Baghdad to export its oil. Prior to February 28, when the US and Israel launched a massive air campaign against Tehran, Iraq had exported 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from its southern fields though the Strait of Hormuz at around $65-72 dollars per barrel and around 50,000 bpd from the Kurdistan Region.

Iran is allowing vessels not considered to belong to “enemies” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, as traffic through the waterway has dropped to its lowest daily level in five years. A total of 111 vessels have passed during the current period of war, including 40 oil tankers.

As the war continues to escalate, Iraq and the Kurdistan Region have not only been caught in the geopolitical crossfire but are also facing growing threats to the very foundations of their economic stability. Oil exports remain the backbone of both Iraq’s national economy and the Kurdistan Region’s fiscal revenues. Yet the ongoing conflict is increasingly exposing structural vulnerabilities across the country’s energy sector. These vulnerabilities extend beyond the physical security of oil fields and export terminals to include the reliability of domestic transportation infrastructure, the safety of maritime routes, and the limited availability of alternative export corridors to global markets.

On Sunday, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil convened a high-level meeting to review recent regional developments and their implications for the energy market. Officials stated that the discussions included an evaluation of the emergency response plan for the oil sector, as well as strategies concerning production and export operations for crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products, all in light of ongoing security tensions in the region.

Iraq's Ministry of Finance monthly spending data reveal significant disparities across governorates that extend beyond the Kurdistan Region, affecting ministries, services and governorates nationwide. Operational and investment allocations vary widely from southern to central Iraq, while Kurdistan Region governorates and disputed areas such as Kirkuk received no funding from 2015 to 2025.

Data published by Iraq’s Ministry of Finance provides an official view of how the country’s economy has been managed over the past decade, with one defining feature standing out clearly: the sustained and rapid expansion of public expenditure. This report is the first installment of a three-part series examining Iraq’s economic trajectory, based on the Rudaw Research Center’s monthly revenue and public expenditure dashboard covering all state institutions from 2015 to 2025.

More than three months ago, a trilateral agreement was signed for exporting oil from Kurdistan Region fields through pipelines and selling it to global markets. According to the penultimate clause of the agreement, " The agreement will be effective for 30 days from the date of signing and will automatically extend until December 31, 2025. The parties can agree to extend the agreement for a longer period or terminate it prematurely."

In his most recent interview with the Iraqi News Agency (INA), the Prime Minister of Iraq presented a set of new economic figures that carry significant implications for the country’s financial outlook. However, these figures diverge markedly from the data published in official reports issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of Iraq, and various international institutions.

Taken together, these developments highlight the diversification of Iraq's investment environment and the country's opening to the world's largest energy companies. However, the case of the West Qurna-2 oil field reveals a major structural weakness in Iraq's energy sector: its vulnerability to shifts in the relationships among global powers. It raises a critical question: if, one day, the United States were to impose sanctions on China and its energy companies, how would Iraq continue to produce oil and finance the state, given that around 90 per cent of government revenue still comes from oil exports?